At the beginning of 2026, the U.S. military action against Venezuela broke the previous short-lived dialog and détente between the two countries, and the regional situation suddenly escalated. This change not only reshaped the geopolitical pattern of the Latin American region, but also brought brand new market variables to China's foreign export enterprises. On the one hand, there is the clear demand of Venezuela to turn to the Eastern market, and on the other hand, there is the trade barrier brought by the U.S. sanctions and blockade, so how should Chinese foreign trade enterprises accurately grasp the opportunities and avoid the risks? This article will combine the latest situation to provide in-depth analysis for export enterprises.
I. The core of the situation: reconstructing the trade environment in the context of the escalating conflict between the United States and Venezuela
On January 3, 2026, the U.S. carried out a large-scale military strike against Venezuela and took control of the Maduros, declaring that it would "temporarily administer" Venezuela and develop its oil resources, triggering widespread discussion and condemnation of international law around the world. Previously, U.S.-Venezuelan relations have shown a fluctuating trajectory of "pressure - détente - re-escalation": in December 2025, Maduro had expressed his willingness to dialog with the U.S. on counter-narcotics cooperation and welcomed U.S. oil investment; however, the Trump administration's military actions have completely shattered the possibility of consultation between the two sides.
At the trade level, the current situation has had two key impacts: on the one hand, the United States has previously imposed a naval blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and has attempted to cut off Venezuela's energy lifeline, a blockade policy that may be extended to more trade categories; on the other hand, Venezuela, in order to cope with the situation, is accelerating its shift to the Eastern market, in particular to deepen its strategic economic and trade relations with China. The Act on the Protection of Freedom of Navigation and Trade against Piracy, Blockade and Other Internationally Illegal Acts, adopted by the National Assembly, also provides legal guarantees for the maintenance of trade with friendly countries.
II. Highlighting opportunities: room for incremental exports in the Venezuelan market
Despite the turbulent situation, Venezuela's market demand and cooperation orientation towards China have created clear opportunities for China's foreign trade exports, especially in the following three major areas.
1. Automobiles and parts: a core category of immediate needs with rapid growth rates
Data from the passenger association branch shows that China's auto exports to Venezuela reached 17,099 units from January to November 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate as high as 1,30%, of which 10,201 passenger cars were exported, with a growth rate of 1,66%, and 1,481 trucks were exported, with a growth rate of 99%. this growth is not accidental: the local Venezuelan automobile market is in the stage of recovery, the In 2024, new car sales will be about 17-18,000 units, and in 2025, it is expected to rise to 30,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 70%. Chinese brands have already occupied an important position in the region, with JAC leading the way with a market share of 27%, and its pickups and trucks are very popular among the locals, and 95% of them have been locally assembled, with a monthly assembling capacity of 500 units; Chang'an Automobile also expects its sales in Venezuela to grow by 155TP3T in 2025, with a growth rate of 1,66%. Changan Automobile is also expected to increase its sales in the country by 15%-20% in 2025, and with the gradual recovery of local infrastructure repair and economic activities, the demand for auto parts and after-sales maintenance and other ancillary services will surge, which will become a new growth point for exports.
2. Energy support equipment: strategic opportunities for resource development
Venezuela is the country with the largest oil reserves in the world, and oil exports are the backbone of its economy, but the United States embargo has caused it to face problems such as a shortage of diluents and an aging infrastructure. The solutions proposed by local experts, such as "independent production of diluent" and "importing light crude oil for blending", require a large amount of supporting equipment for energy extraction and refining. China has mature technical advantages and cost-effective advantages in the fields of oil extraction equipment and refining technology, and Venezuela has clearly welcomed China's participation in energy cooperation, which provides a broad market space for relevant enterprises. In addition, the uncertainty of the business of Chevron and other U.S. companies in Venezuela has also created conditions for Chinese energy equipment companies to fill the market gap.
3. Civil life and infrastructure materials: continued release of rigid demand
Long-term economic fluctuations and external sanctions have left Venezuela with a huge supply gap in textiles, building materials, household appliances and other livelihood and infrastructure sectors. Qatar Al Jazeera reported that local enterprises have shifted from "local production" to "Chinese import" mode, and the import demand for school uniforms, daily necessities and other categories continues to rise; Haier and other Chinese enterprises have set up factories in the region, and their products have gained a stable market share through the government's corporate procurement. Chinese companies such as Haier have set up factories in the country, and their products have gained a stable market share through government procurement. As the Venezuelan government focuses on stabilizing the domestic economy and promoting infrastructure repair, the export demand for building materials, construction machinery, home appliances and other categories will be further released.
4. Policy dividend: endorsement of strategic cooperation between China and the Commission
The Maduro government has repeatedly emphasized "deepening the strategic relationship with China" and regarded China as a core trade partner, and the Venezuelan opposition also supports the expansion of trade with China. At present, the trade cooperation between China and Venezuela has formed a mature model of "energy for loan", and with the promotion of oil and infrastructure projects involving 200,000 Chinese in Venezuela, the civil foundation and cooperation adhesion of bilateral trade have been increasing. This strategic level of cooperation has provided a more stable policy environment and market trust for Chinese enterprises to export.
III. Risk warning: three core challenges for exporters to be wary of
The uncertainty of the situation in the U.S. and Venezuela has brought non-negligible risks to Chinese enterprises exporting to Venezuela, which need to focus on the following three points.
1. Collateral risks of United States sanctions: avoiding involvement in sanctions lists
The United States sanctions against Venezuela have been in place for many years, and the scope of the sanctions is constantly being expanded to include not only Venezuelan enterprises but also third-party enterprises that conduct transactions with Venezuela. At present, the U.S. has taken control of some of Venezuela's administrative resources, and does not rule out the possibility of further strengthening and expanding the scope of sanctions. Exporters need to strictly verify the information of counterparties and avoid cooperation with entities on the U.S. sanctions list; at the same time, they need to standardize the trade process and ensure that settlement currencies and payment channels do not touch the U.S. sanctions restrictions.
2. Operational risks of volatility: logistics and performance uncertainty
The military conflict has led to chaos in some parts of Venezuela, which may affect the stability of port operations, inland transportation and other logistics links. Previously, dozens of oil tankers sanctioned by the United States have been stranded in the waters near Venezuela, showing that maritime transportation is facing greater uncertainty. Exporters need to evaluate the logistics program in advance, choose reliable logistics partners, and make clear the division of responsibilities for delays and losses caused by the turbulent situation in the fulfillment process; at the same time, it is recommended to avoid the risks of buyers' defaults and payment delays by means of export credit insurance and other tools.
3. Exchange rate and payment risk: securing the return of funds
Venezuela's economy is greatly affected by external sanctions and fluctuations in energy prices, and the stability of the local currency exchange rate is poor. At present, the trade between China and Venezuela is mostly based on oil offset loans or specific settlement currencies, and enterprises may face larger exchange rate losses by directly collecting local currency. It is recommended that export enterprises specify the settlement currency in the contract (with priority given to RMB and other stable currencies) and establish a flexible exchange rate hedging mechanism; at the same time, they should strengthen the review of the buyer's credit, so as to avoid bad debts due to the breakage of the capital chain of local enterprises.
IV. Practical Guide: Core Response Strategies for Exporting to Venezuela
Facing the market environment where opportunities and risks coexist, Chinese foreign trade enterprises can start from the following four aspects to realize a sound layout.
1. Precise product selection: focusing on categories of immediate needs and policy support
Prioritize the layout of automotive parts and components, energy supporting equipment, daily necessities and other categories of immediate needs, and avoid sensitive categories deeply affected by U.S. sanctions (such as some military-related materials and sanctioned energy products). At the same time, we will pay attention to the Venezuelan government's infrastructure planning and industrial support policies, and provide products that meet local standards, such as automotive parts and components suitable for local assembly and home appliances adapted to the tropical climate.
2. Compliance first: establishing a full-process risk verification mechanism
Set up a professional compliance team or rely on a third-party organization to comprehensively verify the U.S. sanctions list and export control policies on Venezuela, and ensure compliance in all aspects of product export, counterparties and payment channels. At the same time, we pay attention to the relevant trade policies of the United Nations and the Chinese government towards Venezuela, and make full use of the policy protection of bilateral trade between China and Venezuela to reduce compliance risks.
3. Model innovation: exploring localized cooperation to reduce risk
Drawing on the successful experience of JAC's "local assembly", joint ventures and cooperative production with local enterprises in Venezuela can not only circumvent some trade barriers, but also reduce logistics costs and improve market response speed. In addition, we can rely on local Chinese enterprises and Chinese chambers of commerce to build localized sales and after-sales networks to enhance the adaptability to market fluctuations.
4. Risk hedging: safeguarding returns through financial instruments
Take the initiative to purchase export credit insurance to cover core risk points such as political risks (e.g. war, sanctions) and commercial risks (e.g. buyer default). At the same time, the reasonable use of exchange rate forwards, options and other financial tools to lock the settlement rate, to avoid losses caused by exchange rate fluctuations. For large orders, the payment method of "prepayment + letter of credit" can be adopted to ensure the safety of capital recovery.
V. Conclusion: Grasp Strategic Opportunities and Stable Layout in Emerging Markets
The escalation of the situation between the U.S. and Venezuela in 2026 has brought short-term uncertainty to the Venezuelan market, but it has also accelerated its trade turn to the east, providing structural opportunities for China's foreign trade and export enterprises. For enterprises with compliance and risk control capabilities, the immediate demand gap in the Venezuelan market and the orientation of cooperation with China constitute an emerging growth point that cannot be ignored.
In the future, with the deepening of strategic cooperation between China and Venezuela and the gradual stabilization of Venezuela's domestic situation, bilateral trade is expected to have more room for development. Chinese foreign trade enterprises need to take the principles of "compliance-based, precise layout, and risk-controllable" to grasp market opportunities and do a good job of risk control in the whole process, so as to realize long-term and sound development in this market full of challenges and opportunities.
